What Jayalalithaa might be thinking?

For Jayalalithaa, Karunanidhi is the biggest enemy on earth. She might be ready to do anything to topple the DMK government in Tamil Nadu. The DMK government is at the mercy of Congress – it will fall if Congress, with 35 MLAs, withdraws support. Jayalalithaa would be most happy if she is able to make Congress withdraw support for Karunanidhi’s government. This might have been her intentioned when she invited Congress for a tie up recently. But Congress could not have accepted her offer because it depends on the support of the DMK MPs in the Lok Sabha.

But, things would be completely different after May 16th. Congress will choose between DMK and AIADMK – it will pick whoever has more seats. It appears very likely that AIADMK will end up getting more seats than the DMK. In that case, DMK government will automatically fall because Jayalalithaa will put withdrawal of support for the DMK government as a precondition for support at the centre. But all this can happen only if Congress has a realistic chance to form the government at center after the polls.

Jayalalithaa may also try to form an alternate government in TN after toppling Karunanidhi. In that scenario, the 18 seats PMK has in TN assembly will become very important. The combined strength of AIADMK, Congress and PMK in TN assembly is 113, still 5 short of majority. MDMK has 5 seats, but it may have reservations in doing business with Congress because of the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. The other option for Jayalalithaa would be the left with 15 seats. Considering the numbers in the TN assembly, it would be ideal for Jayalalithaa if Congress and the left come together at the centre after polls. She will be able to form the government in the state in that case. The next best scenario for her would be Congress with support of AIADMK and others getting majority at centre without the help of left. In that case, she will succeed in bringing down the DMK government; but, may not be able to form an alternative government because support from the Left is unlikely.

The Pondicherry government may also fall if AIADMK ties-up with Congress. Congress+AIADMK+PMK will have comfortable majority in Pondicherry assembly. So, the Pondicherry Congress government may continue to survive with the help of AIADMK and PMK. There is another possible scenario in Pondicherry – Ramadoss may demand power in Pondicherry in return for support at centre. Ramadoss always has an eye on Pondicherry – one can never predict the actions of Ramadoss, the most opportunistic politician in India.

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